Are customers really more confident this year, or just spending smarter to cope with lingering price pressures?

You’ll enter the year with clearer signals: NIQ calls it “caution as the new normal,” and IMF forecasts easing inflation and steady global growth. That mix means your brand must show clear value while acknowledging real cost concerns.

Expect intentional shopping where every item must earn its place in a tighter basket. Use data and insights to match what people already prioritize: health, home, convenience, and trust.

Practical wins beat vague promises. Show proof, save time, and be explicit about costs and delivery windows to reduce drop-off and build confidence.

Your path to growth is simple: translate trends into tangible benefits today, remove friction, and design consistent experiences across social commerce, retail media, and stores.

Why caution is the new normal: your customers feel better, but spend intentionally

Shoppers say they feel steadier, yet every purchase now faces a sharper test of purpose. NIQ finds about 30% of global consumers feel better off than a year ago, while 32.8% feel worse. In the US, those feeling “much worse off” fell to 8.5%.

That mix creates a weird reality: confidence rises, but inflation, daily costs, and borrowing still squeeze wallets. You’ll see demand hold for essentials like utilities, health care, and housing, while groceries and household items face weaker lift than last year.

For your products and pricing, intentional consumption means clear value and trust win. Use transparent data—side-by-side comparisons, unit economics, and lifetime value—to make purchasing decisions fast and obvious.

• Frame offers with empathy: show total costs and real savings.
• Test pricing mechanics: thresholds, smaller pack sizes, and trials.
• Design quick journeys: surface reviews, certifications, and replenishment at the moment of choice.

Value over price hikes: how you win trips and baskets in 2026

Winning trips this year means selling clear outcomes, not just lower tags. NIQ shows value sales rising +3.5% while volume edges +0.9% (latest 52 weeks to June 15, 2025). Use that gap to plan where you drive real growth.

Focus assortments on categories with true velocity. Health & Beauty (+2.1%) and Perishable Food (+1.7%) lead volume gains, while Paper Products and Alcohol fall behind.

• Curate SKUs: fewer, stronger products that guide trade-up and trade-down.
• Leverage private label: protect trips when brands can’t cut price.
• Play where inflation cooled: push Pet Food and Home Care with “stock up” messaging.

Where prices still feel high — Health Care, Snacks, Beverages — offset perceived cost with pack architecture, bundles, and timed promos. Ground decisions in category-level data and research so your brand execution wins the market and keeps customers coming back.

Retail media, social commerce, and quick commerce converge into seamless shopping

Retail, social, and quick channels are colliding into one seamless path from discovery to checkout. You must build for that unity: creative that educates, data that personalizes, and fulfillment that keeps promises.

Retailers as media moguls: personalization, loyalty, and data-rich experiences

Retail media networks (RMNs) now blend shelf and ad tech so you can target offers where they convert. Use retailer data to tailor loyalty rewards and promotions that land at the digital shelf.

Social commerce momentum: TikTok Shop, live shopping, and instant purchasing

Search interest in social commerce rose 65% over five years. TikTok Shop launched in the US in September 2023 and by February 2024, 81.3% of US TikTok Shop sales came from returning customers.

Live events can move product fast—P Louise pulled more than $2M in a 12-hour UK livestream—so treat social media as a full-funnel channel.

Designing frictionless pathways: everywhere, all at once journeys

Prioritize convenience: make the route from content to cart one tap, with clear costs and synced carts across apps and stores.

• Build RMN-first: use retailer data for personalized offers that convert.
• Turn content into commerce: live demos and limited drops drive urgency and repeat purchases.
• Sync experiences: wishlists, coupons, and carts should follow shoppers across channels.

Payments without friction: BNPL, open banking, and account-to-account acceleration

Checkout is where you win or lose: fast, clear payment choices cut cart abandonment. Shoppers expect options that match the product and their budget.

BNPL is booming: searches rose 577% over five years, with leaders like Afterpay/Clearpay, Klarna (searches up 79%), and Sezzle gaining traction in Canada. Offer BNPL alongside cards and PayPal so customers pick what fits and don’t abandon at the last step.

Meeting expectations at checkout

Be explicit on fees, timelines, and approvals. Clear expectations build trust and reduce hesitation. Let customers save preferred methods and set purchasing limits to support responsible decisions.

Open banking and A2A payments

Open banking already helps nearly one in five UK small businesses. A2A payments in the US (excluding utilities) are set to exceed $200B by 2027. Pilot A2A for subscription renewals and high-ticket items to cut costs and speed settlement.

• Optimize native checkouts for social commerce and social media flows to minimize taps.
• Match financing to products: split-pay for durables, instant A2A for everyday refills.
• Build fallback logic and run cohort tests to improve authorization rates and lower declines.

Make mobile the baseline experience. Communicate security and privacy in plain language to increase trust and convert more customers.

Delivery as a decision-maker: last mile, same-day, and hyper-fast fulfillment

Delivery speed has become a major factor in why people pick one retailer over another.

Your fulfillment choices now shape conversion. Same-day options lift short-term demand, while clear time windows reduce anxiety and returns.

Roadie (UPS) uses a crowd-sourced driver network to cover 20,000+ US ZIP codes, making same-day possible for big-and-bulky items. Likewise, 82% of consumers are more likely to buy when same-day delivery is available.

Quick commerce is resurging globally: 15-minute grocery in India is a $5B slice of online grocery, and Carrefour and Glovo offer 30-minute delivery in Italy. These shifts raise expectations and force businesses to rework costs and routing.

Practical steps you can take:

• Make delivery speed visible early so shoppers choose you for convenience or time-sensitive needs.
• Use crowd-sourced networks like Roadie to extend reach and handle odd sizes without owning a fleet.
• Right-size packaging and inventory for hyper-fast missions—impulse buys, essentials, and meals.
• Map demand by time and neighborhood to optimize slots, batching, and routing; test lockers and pickups where delivery costs spike.

Be transparent about pricing and cutoff times. Honest service levels beat overpromising and protect your margin as demand and growth pressure your cost-to-serve.

For a deeper look at scale and players in the last-mile delivery market, use that research to align your forecasts and staffing so growth doesn’t outpace service quality.

Ethics, sustainability, and trust: when values drive purchasing decisions

Transparent proof of impact is becoming a basic requirement for trust at the shelf. Consumers are willing to pay more for verified sustainability, and they will leave brands that fail to prove their claims.

Sustainability premiums and switching behavior

PwC finds consumers will pay a 9.7% sustainability premium. Deloitte reports 30% stopped buying brands over ethics or sustainability concerns.

Expect reward and risk: credible ESG gains you price flexibility, while greenwashing drives switching.

From bamboo basics to carbon accounting

Search interest in bamboo products and carbon accounting has surged in recent years, showing demand for tangible proof.

• Use verified materials and certifications to earn trust.
• Publish year-over-year data on packaging, energy, and logistics.
• Make sustainable choices easy—auto-opt-in refills, consolidated shipping, and take-back programs.

Train teams to explain sourcing and impact at shelf. Tie sustainability to product value—durability and performance lower perceived risk and help conversion. People reward companies that show real progress, so make data your story and customers your advocates.

Health moves home: remote care, wellness devices, and mindful routines

Remote care and wellness tools are turning homes into personalized health hubs for prevention and recovery. Remote healthcare searches jumped 450% in five years, and 86% of practitioners cite reduced travel time as a key win. That momentum makes at-home care a strategic area for your offerings.

Telehealth and remote patient management

Make access and convenience your headline. Offer telehealth-friendly services and clear workflows that tie virtual consults to your products. Virtual follow-ups, refill reminders, and remote monitoring reduce friction and boost trust.

At-home treatments and light therapy

Red light therapy searches rose 450% and the light therapy market is now about $1B. Curate vetted devices and package them with plain-language guides and practitioner-backed research so people use them safely and effectively.

Mindfulness, sleep, and daily routines

Apps and biofeedback wearables (Muse, Calm, Headspace) prove that guided habits drive retention. Sleep coach searches rose 93%—bundle coaching, journaling prompts, and simple tech to create repeatable rituals that deliver real experiences.

• Pair services and product kits: recovery, skin health, or stress relief bundles.
• Educate simply: one-page guides, short videos, and virtual Q&A with practitioners.
• Protect data: be explicit about privacy and how you handle health information.

Position your brand as part of a holistic at-home plan, not a one-off purchase. That focus captures growth and builds lasting trust with the people who rely on your solutions today.

Influence reshaped: micro-influencers, creator subscriptions, and trust at scale

Smaller creators now deliver outsized trust and action, especially with Gen Z and Gen Alpha. Klarna finds influencer accounts sway Gen Z purchasing more than retailer pages, and 49% of Gen Alpha trust influencers like friends or family. That changes how you plan reach and return.

Why micro still matters

Micro-influencers drive engagement because their audiences feel seen. Searches for “micro influencers” are up 48% in five years.

Work with niche creators to get efficient conversions. Their recommendations feel native and reduce friction at checkout.

Creator economies expand

Creators earn via subscriptions and premium content—OnlyFans creators pulled $5.3B in 2023 and SubscribeStar interest exploded. Offer subscription perks, exclusive drops, and post-purchase communities to turn influence into loyalty.

• Treat creators as partners: share briefs, seeding plans, and clear metrics.
• Use first-party data to match creators to your best customers and avoid overlap.
• Track growth by attributable sales, repeat rates, and lifetime value—not just likes.

Subscriptions everywhere: from streaming and gaming to everyday products

Subscriptions are no longer a niche model—they now touch streaming, groceries, games, and daily essentials. The subscription market is estimated at about $3T, and 86% of US consumers now subscribe to at least one service. That scale changes how you think about growth and retention.

Stability for you, convenience for them

Design tiers that make sense. Offer a baseline for convenience and clear loyalty perks that feel personal. Use annual prepay discounts and predictable pricing to boost lifetime value.

Match cadence to usage: align content drops and product refills to real patterns so customers see value every cycle. Bundle products and services to raise stickiness and cross-sell without friction.

When subscribers churn: reduce risk with flexible controls

Allow pauses, skips, and easy downgrades to cut cancellations during tight months. Control helps lower voluntary churn and keeps your acquisition cost working for growth.

• Structure tiers as a clear value ladder—convenience, perks, and premium experiences.
• Use social media for updates and surprise-and-delight moments that deepen loyalty.
• Partner with other companies and brands to add co-branded benefits and lower acquisition costs.
• Forecast demand across the market to avoid stockouts that trigger cancellations.

Track what matters: report retention cohorts, net growth, and payback periods so you can optimize offers and protect margin. When you get these basics right, subscriptions become a tool for steady growth and better customer experiences today.

Home as the hub: smart cleaning, time-saving kitchens, and pet-first spending

Homes are turning into productivity zones, where gadgets and services shave hours from busy weeks.

Smart cleaning and kitchen upgrades are no longer luxuries. Searches for “Ecovacs” jumped 213% over five years, “deep cleaning service” rose 134%, and “air fryer” climbed 123%. These hits show steady demand for products that save you time.

Pet premiumization is real. The global pet furniture market is $1.74B, “probiotic bites” exploded 99x, and dog supplements searches keep rising. Fewer people having children helps fuel splurges for fur babies and overall market growth.

• Spotlight robot vacuums, deep-clean appointments, and multi-use air fryers that cut chores.
• Bundle weekend resets, meal-prep kits, and seasonal clean plans to lift basket size.
• Offer installation, setup, and a follow-up service to prove convenience from day one.
• Use data to send helpful replenishment nudges and care-plan reminders, not hard sells.

Show social commerce before-and-after clips to speed consideration. Help your customers pick the right tier with clear comparisons so your product fits real-life habits.

Conclusion

Turn signals into action: build short tests that prove value fast and scale what works.

Anchor decisions in data and clear insights, then remove friction across payments, delivery, and support so trust grows with every purchase.

Focus growth where demand is strongest—health and beauty, home care, convenience, and credible sustainability—and use retail media and social commerce to link content to carts.

Design experiences that respect time: fast paths to purchase, accurate ETAs, and easy support lift loyalty and improve purchasing decisions today.

Balance technology with humanity, keep customers close with feedback loops, and invest in teams who move quickly. Do this and your company will turn trends into durable growth and better outcomes for consumers.